Establishment GOP Leaders Destroying GOP Brand
George Rasley | CHQ Editor | 7/2/2015
A just-released McLaughlin & Associates poll published in National Review has revealed a truly disastrous trend for national Republicans: one in six of all voters, 18 percent, disapproves of the job that President Obama is doing, but is not voting Republican.
Right now both parties remain polarized in their vote for Congress. Republicans vote for Republicans 95 percent to 1 percent. Democrats vote for Democrats 90 percent to 5 percent. Independents are evenly split at 32 percent for each party, with 36 percent undecided.
Among McLaughlin’s major findings is that a majority of Americans continue to disapprove of the job President Obama is doing: Only 46 percent of all voters approve of the job Obama is doing, while 52 percent disapprove.
But, the really troubling number for Republicans is that Democrats, for the second month in a row, lead Republicans for Congress 44 percent to 42 percent.
Since January 2014, when pollster John McLaughlin began the monthly McLaughlinOnline.com survey, the president has never been in positive territory. This majority disapproval of the president’s performance propelled the Republican landslide last November and could still shape the trends among voters this year and next.
But, then again, says McLaughlin, if Republicans do not focus clearly on issues, it might not.
The key voter group that disapproves of the job Obama is doing and that is not voting Republican now supports Democrats for Congress 59 percent, with only 41 percent undecided.
Last November, it was this segment of voters that, when they finally decided their vote, went from undecided to voting Republican, and they carried Republicans to a bigger majority in the House and control of the U.S. Senate.
In this presidential year, enough Democrats could be motivated to come out to outnumber Republicans. And in spite of the fact that some disapprove of the job that the president is doing, they are still willing to vote decisively for Democrats for Congress and probably the Senate, too concluded McLaughlin.
Unlike 2010 and 2014, which were clearly referendums on President Obama, and 2012, which was a polarized battle to drive up turnout on each side, says McLaughlin, 2016 might not be a referendum on President Obama’s policies. It could be a choice between two different visions of the future. That would be bad for Republicans.
And here’s a major reason why: those voters who disapprove of Obama’s job performance and who do not vote Republican disapprove of Obamacare 72 percent, compared with only 23 percent who approve. Independents disapprove of Obamacare 54 percent to 39 percent. It’s very clear that the Republicans would benefit from a sharper contrast with the Obama Democrats on this issue concluded McLaughlin, however, we note for the record that establishment GOP promises to “repeal and replace” Obamacare have never materialized.
Likewise, the majority of American voters still favor a smaller government with fewer services over a larger government with many services – 56 percent to 31 percent. This trend has grown since January McLaughlin found.
Even 39 percent of Democrats favor a smaller government, and independents favor smaller government 63 percent to 26 percent; undecided voters for Congress favor smaller government 53 percent to 22 percent. A focus on the size of government should benefit Republicans says McLaughlin.
However, the reality is government – at least as measured by spending – has grown under the new Republican congressional majority.
Most damaging to the President’s party says McLaughlin is the fact that nearly two-thirds, 64 percent, of American voters say that the county is on the wrong track. Only 28 percent say the country is headed in the right direction.
However, among those who say the country is on the wrong track, McLaughlin found that only 53 percent are voting Republican; 32 percent vote Democratic, and 15 percent are undecided.
So 30 percent of all voters say the country is on the wrong track and they are not voting Republican. If the Republicans intend to win the White House and hold their majorities in Congress, they need a very clear contrast with Obama and his failed policies. They need to hold the president and his party accountable for their failures, whether in the realm of security, the economy, or general social decline.